The Threat from Dissident Irish Republican Terrorist Groups

From the front page of todays Times, comes this story, which I thought would be worth reproducing, and writing a little about, not least because stories from the Times so often get lost on the blogosphere because of their stupid paywall:

Dissident Irish terror cell at large in Britain

An Irish republican terror cell is operating in England for the first time in a decade, creating a growing security problem in the weeks before the royal wedding, The Times has learnt.

Counter-terrorism teams in southern England have been diverted from tracking Islamist cells to examining a potential threat. And Cobra, the Government’s national emergency committee, has increased the number of its occasional meetings in Whitehall to three a week, with some of them chaired by David Cameron.

The threat from dissident groups, the most potent of which is thought to be operating under the name Óglaigh na hÉireann (“Irish Volunteers”), has been anticipated for months by police and MI5. The security situation is, according to one source, incredibly tense, with discussions taking place at the highest levels about the terror threat “coming from two different directions”.

There are two months until the wedding of Prince William and Kate Middleton; President Obama arrives for a state visit in May; and the London Olympics begin in 18 months.

An attack is not believed to be imminent, however, and the dissident unit is not considered to be as immediately dangerous as a number of home-grown Islamist terror cells with links to al-Qaeda. Some of these groups are known to be plotting a terror attack in the style of the Mumbai assault of 2008, when more than 170 people were killed in a series of co-ordinated shootings and bombings.

Last week police and soldiers took part in an exercise that mocked up the possibility of simultaneous terrorist gun attacks in Birmingham and Reading. The exercise included an emergency meeting chaired by Theresa May, the Home Secretary.

The Times also understands that armed anti-terrorist units were “scrambled” on New Year’s Eve in response to fears that an attack by an Islamist group was imminent. The incident was quickly found to be a false alarm and the teams were stood down.

Until recently the dissident Irish republican threat had been confined to Northern Ireland and the security assessment was that the different factions were too small and inexperienced and lacked the capability to operate outside Northern Ireland. A Real IRA bombing campaign in 2001 was the last time republican groups exported terror across the Irish Sea.

Hugh Robertson, the Olympics Minister, said last week that dissident Irish republican groups were regarded as a real threat to security at the Games.

A counter-terrorism source said: “As the Games get closer the appetite for risk will diminish. The plan will be to disrupt and deter plots, making sure they don’t get off the ground, rather than letting them run to gather evidence and get convictions in court.”

Recent incidents in Northern Ireland have involved car bombs and anti-personnel devices which have usually been preceded with coded, though often confused, telephone warnings to the authorities. They have also, however, targeted individuals with booby traps.

The threat level for Irish terrorism in Britain was raised last September from “moderate” to “substantial”, meaning that an attack was a strong possibility. At the time Jonathan Evans, MI5 Director-General, said that the dissident groups posed a real and rising security threat.

The threat level for terrorism linked to al-Qaeda is currently at “severe”, meaning that an attack is highly likely. The Islamist danger is, however, feared to be changing in character.

One plot being investigated by British, American and other international agencies is for simultaneous armed attacks in Britain, France and Germany. British police are particularly concerned after the case of a former American Marine who allegedly smuggled handguns into Britain on transatlantic flights. Sixty weapons are believed not to have been recovered.

It comes amid a number of recent stories concerning Irish republican dissidents threatening the British mainland. The concerns over dissident republican attacks on the London Olympic Games have been increasingly in the news over the past few weeks. Here is just one story run by the Telegraph a week ago:

Hugh Robertson, the sports minister, said that “threat assessments” had identified a real danger from dissident Republican groups to the 2012 Games.

His comments are the first official confirmation that security agencies fear groups based in Northern Ireland could stage terrorist attacks on the British mainland.

Mr Robertson, a former Army officer who served in Northern Ireland, was speaking at the publication of the annual report on preparations for the Olympic Games, which will be held next summer.

Asked if Republican groups were a significant threat to the Olympics, he replied: “It's a threat to the Games.”

There are three main armed Irish republican groups which are still operational at this point: The Continuity IRA, the Real IRA and Óglaigh na hÉireann (ONH). All three reject the power-sharing agreement instituted after the Good Friday agreement of 1998, and seek to force a British withdrawal from Northern Ireland through armed struggle, resulting in the unification of the entire island of Ireland into a single policial unit.

Given the threat indicated by the Times seems to be feared to be coming from Óglaigh na hÉireann, a look at the previous actions of the group, and its capabilities, is very worthwhile.

Óglaigh na hÉireann

Óglaigh na hÉireann was formed in a gradual process after the split in the Real IRA in 2002, over the issue of the "ignominious" ceasefire with the British. From 2009, one of the splinters began publicly identifying itself with the name Óglaigh na hÉireann, and it is from this point that the group really began to operate as an independent, distinct body.
Its operation include (but are far from limited to):

Splinter group blamed for threat - Óglaigh na hÉireann reported to have attempted a home robbery on January 5, 2009.

Member of Real IRA found shot dead in churchyard - Óglaigh na hÉireann thought to have shot another republican dissident in a churchyard on 14 February, 2008.

'Surge' in paramilitary shootings - ONH involved in an increasing number of punishment shootings in mainly Catholic areas of Northern Ireland, as reported by the BBC on April 9, 2009.

'Splinter group' behind road bomb - 600lb car bomb left by Óglaigh na hÉireann in a field in south Armagh on September 9, 2009.

We Planted Car Bomb: ONH - ONH admit detonating car bomb which injured the girlfriend of a police officer in east Belfast on October 17, 2009.

Army Camp Blast Could Have Killed - ONH detonate bomb near a Territorial Army base in north Belfast on October 22, 2009.

Policeman injured in Randalstown bomb critically ill - ONH detonate car bomb in County Antrim, critically injuring a police officer on January 8, 2010.

Bomb intended for the Police is discovered in Belfast - ONH abandoned a bomb on the Antrim Road in Belfast on 26 January, 2011.

The 2008 Independent Monitoring Commission reported that:

"Óglaighna hÉireann (ONH) had continued to be active. It had attacked police officers, a PSNI station and members of District Policing Partnerships; had sought to enhance its capability; and members had engaged in criminal activity including drug dealing." It also reported that in "December 2007 ONH launched a pipe bomb attack on Strabane PSNI station, the second ONH attack on this target in less than six months. The device failed to function as intended. The grouping attempted to recruit and train new members and it undertook targeting for the purposes of possible attacks – mainly of security force personnel and premises. It also attempted to obtain weapons and to raise funds. In October 2007 the PSNI discovered terrorist equipment in Strabane belonging to ONH. We now have information suggesting that in August 2007 (in the preceding six month period) ONH exiled a member for failing to observe the instructions of the leadership. Members continued to be involved in a wide range of serious criminal activity, including drug dealing, mainly, we believe, for personal profit. ONH thus remains a continuing and serious threat, including to the lives of members of the security forces."

Martyn Frampton in his recent report for The International Centre for the Study of Radicalization and Political Violence, 'The Return of the Militants:
Violent Dissident Republicanism', wrote:

"Such attacks may suggest that ONH might just be emerging as a possible unifying force around which the different dissident organisations might gravitate. Though often described as small in number, it is reputed to comprise of former senior Provisionals, as well as RIRA members. Furthermore, despite its short-lived existence it has already demonstrated a capacity for successfully carrying out major attacks."

The Belfast Telegraph at the end of 2010 identified ONH as "the most serious terrorist threat in Northern Ireland over the past year":

"It is regarded by police on both sides of the border as the most dangerous of the three main dissident republican groups.

It has about 50 activists and has been attempting to boost its ranks by a recruitment campaign North and South while also stepping up its efforts to purchase arms and develop its skills in manufacturing homemade bombs."

It is clear at this point that ONH is a serious threat to the stability and security of Northern Ireland, and is gaining increasing strength. The report by the Times and the various security warnings give rise to an increasing chance that we will be seeing dissident Irish republican attacks on the British mainland over the next few years, something we have not seen since 2001.

An interview with high-ranking ONH officers in November 2010 revealed that ONH seemed to confirm this threat, and indicated that ONH is very open to the idea of operations on the British mainland:

Rowan: Is Britain – attacks there – part of your focus and thinking?

ONH: Oglaigh na hEireann will decide when and where it attacks. Sceptics will say, ‘they would say that because they don’t have the capabilities’. Eighteen months ago, they told us we couldn’t even detonate a bomb. Nothing is beyond our reach.